“It has taken a long time for us to reach the understanding that much of what we do is not under conscious control, even though we thought that it was.”  Michael Gazzaniga, neuroscientist and author of Human: The Science Behind What Makes Us Different

Not surprisingly, this leads to mistakes, so many in fact, that there is an explosion of books on the subject. Previous newsletters mentioned two in particular, Predictably Irrational³ and Nudge.⁴  

Mistakes we make over and over and ...

Joseph T. Hallinan author of Why We Make Mistakes, provides some memorable research on how we routinely delete, distort and generalize information, the real reasons behind our mistakes.

Before sharing some examples from Hallinan's book, a couple of ideas are worth keeping in mind:

• Deleting, distorting and generalizing can have positive and negative affects. It depends on when and where we use them – the task and context.

• Expectations (our beliefs) shape both the way we see the world and our behaviours.

Multi-tasking = Forgetting

Hallinan calls multi-tasking a grand illusion from computer programming, because it is impossible to divide conscious attention between two conscious activities. We are really attention switching. You may be able to walk and chew gum at the same time, but only after the underlying activity (walking) becomes so automatic it's unconscious.

Trying to perform two mental tasks at the same time erodes our memory

• 'Working memory' keeps track of short-term data, like numbers and names. When the brain switches between tasks, data begins disappearing in as little as 2 seconds. And who hasn't had the experience of being introduced to as few as three people, and found you'd forgotten the first person's name by the time you met the third? 

• Within 15 seconds of considering a new problem, we can forget up to 40% of what we were working on previously.

• And it can take up to 15 minutes to get back our concentration after distractions like phone calls and text messages. Even longer if we're expecting a response. Worth thinking about the next time you're studying for an exam or attending a seminar?

The illusion of multi-tasking also slows our reaction time

The US National Highway Traffic Safety Administration calls it in-attentional blindness.

• NHTSA  recently revised their estimation of distraction-related accidents after a study equipped vehicles with cameras for two years. This way, they could see what drivers were really doing if they were in an accident. (Self-report is highly unreliable because memory is actually a reconstruction, biased towards seeing our own behaviour in the best light.)

• They found that in 78% of all crashes and 65% of near misses drivers were actually looking away from the road. (Previous research based on what drivers said they were doing indicated that only 25% were based on distraction.)

The US air force calls it task saturation, doing too many things at once.

• It is so common Honeywell engineers coined their own term, ‘Controlled Flight Into Terrain’ for flying a perfectly good plane into the ground!  

Rapid Fire Analysis

We skim.

• We believe we have the ability size up situations quickly and miss critical details. Especially when you're working with complex data. Like preparing for a CFP exam as an example.

• The more we think we're an expert, the higher the temptation to skim. Think of the medical profession where doctors were once considered infallible. Many hospitals are now encouraging nurses to speak up.

• This practice follows the changes in chain-of-command on aircraft flight decks, where all crew are trained to speak up during emergencies. 

We Are Poorly Calibrated

In this context, calibration is the difference between actual and perceived abilities.

• We think we are better than we are.

• Wearing rose coloured glasses is great for motivation, but over confidence can be a hidden flaw when you're making critical judgments and predictions.

In 2008 Anderson and Bojaj 2008, looked at the error rates for American securities analysts predicting company earnings. 

• 1980 incorrect 30% of the time

• 1985 incorrect 52% of the time

• 1990 incorrect 65% of the time

Since 2008 Merrill Lynch has required their analysts to give an under perform or sell rating to at least 20% of their stocks. So how do you improve your calibration? Good question ...

In the next couple newsletters we'll cover more of these perceptual traps. If you'd like ideas for avoiding the traps, the field of neuro-linguistics works extensively with these perceptual filters.

• We have effective tools for avoiding the errors workplace stress they cause.

• On the up side these filters can also be used increasing productivity, motivation, sales and customer satisfaction.

Contact Us or call me at 416-492-3200, if you have questions.
 

Related Consumer Behaviour Research (neuro-science)

1. When asked about product choices, if people don't know consciously, they will make up salient, plausible and socially acceptable reasons for what they do.¹
   In other words, customers will tell you what they think they should want, based on social influences - a tendency that has led to some costly miss-takes in consumer research.

2. While features and benefits supply the rational reasons to justify a decision once it is made, the unconscious sensory elements of an experience have a far greater influence (positive or negative) on emotions, buying decisions and customer loyalty.¹

3. Non-verbal cues and linguistic markers provide the most accurate information about what people want and intend to do, because they are largely unconscious. ²

¹ J. Le Doux, Center for Neural Science, NYU, Your Emotional Brain 1989
² J. Kagan, Harvard Mind:Brain:Behavior Initiative, 2002